The Nuclear Nonproliferation Regime at a Crossroads

Memorandum No. 137, Tel Aviv: Institute for National Security Studies, May 2014

Editors: Emily B. Landau , Azriel Bermant

The articles compiled in this volume grapple with questions and dilemmas that arise from a growing sense in recent years that the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) has reached a critical juncture, and that its continued role as the centerpiece of the nuclear nonproliferation regime is at risk. This is the result of a process that has unfolded gradually since the end of the Cold War, which also spelled the end of the bipolar global structure that, in the minds of many, helped keep nuclear proliferation in check.

Contents

Part I. The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty: Past Dynamics and Current Assessments

Forging Ahead: Challenges and Opportunities for the NPT / Rose Gottemoeller
The NPT Review Conferences / Harald Müller
The NPT toward 2015: NAM and Non-Nuclear Weapon States Perspectives /Rebecca Johnson
Don’t Beat a Dead Horse: The Past, Present, and Future Failures of the NPT / Carlo Masala
A “Bank Run” on the NPT: Preventing a Crisis of Confidence / Cameron S. Brown

Part II. The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty: Will the NPT Survive?

Nuclear Nonproliferation Regime: A Rethink? / Ephraim Asculai
Too Early to Eulogize the Nuclear Nonproliferation Regime /Tamar Malz-Ginsburg
Whither the International Nuclear Order? / Emmanuelle Blanc

Part III. Confronting Proliferation at the Global Level

Recalibrating President Obama’s Global Zero Vision / Michael Nacht
Changes in the International System and their Impact on Proliferation / Yair Evron
Russia’s Nonproliferation Policy / Anton Khlopkov
Pakistan’s Security Perceptions and their Adverse Impact on the Global Nuclear Order / Nir Reichental

Part IV. The Verification Challenge

The IAEA Verifications System in Perspective / Olli Heinonen
Verifying the Prohibition on Chemical Weapons: The Relevance of OPCW Processes to the IAEA / Jean Pascal Zanders

Part V.  Perspectives on the Middle East

Nonproliferation and Regional Security: An Israeli Policy Perspective / Jeremy Issacharoff
Security Asymmetries in the Middle East / Shimon Stein
The Need for a Regional Security Regime in the Middle East / Shlomo Brom
A WMD-Free Zone in the Middle East: The Main Challenge is not the NPT / Benjamin Hautecouverture