Framework for Elimination of Syrian Chemical Weapons – Annotated commentary
This is a very quick reaction to the agreement between Russia and the United States to address Syria’s chemical weapons. My interpretations may change as more background information becomes available. I am sure that over the next few days there will be many background briefings to add texture to the individual paragraphs in the agreement. I welcome comments challenging or supplementing my views, and will revise this posting accordingly. Generally speaking, the bilateral agreement takes the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) and the fact that Syria has just submitted its instrument of accession to the UN Secretary General as the point …
Syria to join Chemical Weapons Convention, Assad announces
Syria crisis: Assad sets out chemicals plan timeline BBC World, 12 September 2013 Last updated at 16:45 GMT Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad has given the first indication of a timeline for placing its chemical weapons under international control. He told Russian TV that Syria would apply to join a UN chemicals convention “in the next few days” and submit arms data a month after signing. [Continues] …
Internationalisation of Syria’s chemical weapon stockpile?
The idea of internationalising Syria’s stockpile is doable, but what would it take? Some first thoughts to launch an international and constructive discussion by Jean Pascal Zanders and Ralf Trapp Yesterday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov launched an idea—in the meantime accepted by Syria—based on an offhand remark by US Secretary of State that Syria might avoid punitive military strikes if it were to ‘turn over every single bit of his chemical weapons to the international community in the next week’. He said: We are calling on the Syrian authorities not only agree on putting chemical weapons storages under international …
We All Fall Down Part 1: The national intelligence assessments
This is the first of a four-part series analysing the international reactions to the chemical attacks in Damascus on 21 August. Part 2 addresses how the public intelligence assessments have been used to try and justify military interventions against Syrian forces and military installations. Part 3 attempts to construct a counter-factual argument in order to determine whether insurgent forces can be held responsible for the chemical attacks. Part 4 investigates the consequences of international reactions for the future of the norm against chemical weapons (CW). Over the past 10 days the French, UK and US governments published intelligence summaries …
US assessment of chemical weapons attack near Damascus
The US State Department has just published the Government Assessment of the Syrian Government’s Use of Chemical Weapons on August 21, 2013 and a map of the suburbs affected. This is the first credible account of events released by any government. Credible, because it contains assertions and caveats, but most importantly, because its details are falsifiable. The elements can be verified against other sources, most notably the preliminary report of the UN investigative team, which should be with UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon within the next 72 hours or so (Sunday or Monday). The different sources will need parsing. The …
Syria: incendiary weapon used against civilians
The BBC carries very graphic footage of the aftermath of an incendiary bomb dropped by a fighter jet on to a school playground in the north of Syria. Scores of children have napalm-like burns over their bodies. An incendiary weapon is not a chemical weapon as defined by the Chemical Weapons Convention, because it harms humans through heat rather than the direct effects of poisoning. They include weapons such as napalm or white phosphorus. Incendiary weapons are banned by the Convention on Certain Conventional Weapons (also known as the Inhumane Weapons Convention), Protocol III. Article I defines an incendiary weapon …
A simple calculation
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Syria: Should UN Investigators Pass Judgement?
With the horrific events of the past two days in several Damascus suburbs dominating the airwaves and press reports, the ability to establish rough time lines of events and more detailed circumscriptions of the areas affected allows more and more to conclude that several more or less simultaneous chemical weapon (CW) attacks took place in the very early morning hours of 21 August. While the number of casualties — affected survivors and fatalities — is impossible to establish right now, it is clear that scores, if not hundreds of people fell victim to some asphyxiant. Several chemical warfare agents are …
Apparently major chemical weapons attack near Damascus reported
As I am writing, disturbing news reports are coming in of a major chemical attack on the eastern eastern outskirts of Damascus (Ghouta district). According to images and film footage posted to the Internet by opponents to the al-Assad regime, many casualties, including fatalities can be seen. Supplementary visual testimony strongly indicates poisoning. [Images are graphic and should be viewed with caution!] In past blog postings and commentaries I have been sceptical of CW claims, because the narrative accompanying images and film footage did not correspond with what could be seen. More importantly, a number of things one would expect …